The NASCAR Cup Series makes its only stop in California this Sunday with the 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350. The 90-lap race takes place at Sonoma Raceway in the Bay Area and Jeff Gordon -- who grew up in the area -- dominated this road course with the most wins, most top-10s and most laps led. But with Gordon retired, Martin Truex Jr. has been the recent NASCAR at Sonoma king with three wins over the last seven races held here. Truex Jr. enters the Toyota Save Mart 350 2021 as the two-time defending champion, having won in 2018 and 2019 before last year's race was cancelled.
The green flag will drop at 4 p.m. ET on Sunday and William Hill Sportsbook lists Truex Jr. at 3-1 in the latest 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 odds. He's second in the odds behind Chase Elliott (6-4), who has has a strong road course track record and finished in the top three in each of his last three races. Kyle Busch, a two-time NASCAR at Sonoma winner, is listed at 15-2 as he angles for his second win of this Cup Series season. Before scouring the 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 starting lineup and making any NASCAR at Sonoma predictions, be sure to see the latest 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 picks from SportsLine's proven projection model.
Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account factors such as track history and recent results.
The model began the 2020 season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami.
At The Brickyard, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season. Then during the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs, the model nailed its NASCAR picks in back-to-back races, calling Denny Hamlin to win at 17-2 at Talladega and Chase Elliott to win at 7-2 at the Charlotte Roval.
In the 2021 season, the model has correctly predicted at least seven top-10 finishers in six of the last 12 races. And in April, McClure nailed Martin Truex Jr. to win at Martinsville for a strong 3-1 payout. He was also high on eventual winner Alex Bowman at Dover in May. Anyone who has followed his lead has seen some huge returns.
Now, the model simulated the 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 10,000 times. Head to SportsLine to see the complete projected NASCAR at Sonoma leaderboard.
Top 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 predictions
One surprise: the model is high on Kurt Busch, even though he's a massive 50-1 long shot in the latest NASCAR at Sonoma odds 2021. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Few active drivers have competed at Sonoma Raceway as much as Busch has as he has 20 years of experience on the track. He won this event 10 years ago and kept runner-up Jeff Gordon from getting his sixth NASCAR at Sonoma victory.
Apart from his win, Busch also has six other top-five finishes at this track. Those came with five different teams and this will be just his second time competing for Chip Ganassi Racing at Sonoma. But Busch has shown that he can excel with any team's backing as his 198 laps led at Sonoma ranks third all-time, trailing only Gordon and Truex Jr. No other drivers in this field know the ins and outs of Sonoma like Busch does, giving him great value for 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 picks.
And a massive shocker: Chase Elliott, the Vegas favorite at 6-4, stumbles and doesn't crack the top three. There are far better values in this loaded 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 starting lineup. The 2020 Cup Series Champion ranks fourth in standings this season thanks to a recent surge with five consecutive top-10 finishes.
However, he's never been to victory lane in the Cup Series at Sonoma Raceway, let alone finished in the top three before. He's raced it four times before and he has more finishes outside the top 20 (two) than he has inside the top five (one). This year, Elliott's fourth-place ranking in the Cup Series standings may be an indicator that he's been more lucky than good as he barely cracks the top 10 in laps led, ranking ninth in that category. E
How to make 2021 NASCAR at Sonoma picks
The model is also targeting another driver with 2021 NASCAR at Sonoma odds of 30-1 or longer to make a serious run at winning it all. Anyone who backs this driver could hit it big. You can see all of the model's NASCAR picks over at SportsLine.
So who wins the Toyota Save Mart 350 2021? And which long shots stun NASCAR? Check out the latest 2021 NASCAR at Sonoma odds below, then visit SportsLine now to see the full projected 2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 leaderboard, all from the model that called at least seven of the top 10 drivers in six of the last 12 races and nailed Martin Truex Jr.'s win at Martinsville.
2021 Toyota Save Mart 350 odds
Chase Elliott 6-4
Martin Truex Jr. 3-1
Kyle Busch 15-2
Kyle Larson 8-1
Denny Hamlin 10-1
William Byron 12-1
Joey Logano 16-1
Ryan Blaney 18-1
Kevin Harvick 20-1
Alex Bowman 25-1
Christopher Bell 30-1
Brad Keselowski 30-1
Kurt Busch 50-1
Tyler Reddick 60-1
Michael McDowell 75-1
Chris Buescher 100-1
Ross Chastain 100-1
Daniel Suarez 100-1
Matt DiBenedetto 100-1
Cole Custer 100-1
Chase Briscoe 100-1
Erik Jones 150-1
Austin Dillon 250-1
Bubba Wallace 300-1
Ryan Preece 300-1
Ryan Newman 300-1
Aric Almirola 300-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 300-1
Corey Lajoie 2500-1
Anthony Alfredo 2500-1
Ben Rhodes 2500-1
Scott Heckert 5000-1
Cody Ware 5000-1
Josh Bilicki 5000-1
Quin Houff 5000-1
Garrett Smithley 5000-1
James Davison 5000-1
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